Kansas City Chiefs Preview

Despite Kansas City’s 10-38 record over the past three years the Chiefs could be closer than you think to an NFL post-season spot. A breakout season isn’t impossible but it would be a stretch to view this as playoff caliber team at least right now. The books agree with that assessment as well listing the Chiefs at +750 to win the AFC West well behind the favored Chargers and slightly behind the Broncos.

KC though seems to be headed in the right direction thanks to the tandem of general manager Scott Pioli and head coach Todd Haley. Pioli did some major house cleaning when he arrived while Haley installed a new shotgun spread offense and a 3-4 defense. Haley has also assembled an All-Star coaching staff, consisting primarily of former Patriot assistants. Charlie Weis was hired as offensive coordinator while former Browns head coach Romeo Crennel was brought in to direct the defense.

Kansas City started the ’09 campaign with five straight losses (1-4 ATS) and never did recover. Quarterback Matt Cassell, perhaps feeling the weight of the huge $63 million contract, averaged just 5.9 yards per pass attempts and finished with disappointing numbers in several of the major offensive categories. He threw for 2,924 yards (20^th) with 16 touchdowns (21^st), 16 interceptions and a passer rating of 69.6 (25^th). His detractors say the Chiefs overpaid for him and without the NE system and receivers like Welker and Moss Cassell will ultimately end up being just another overpaid QB. If the Cassell should crumble, Brodie Croyle is the other option although Croyle is 0-9 as a starter. With that QB tandem it’s no surprise the Chiefs are listed at 50/1 to win the AFC.

One pleasant surprise in 2009 was the play of running back Jamal Charles. The former Texas star became the starter in Week 7 rushing for 1,120 yards and a sparkling 5.9 per yards average. He also had 40 receptions finishing with a combined nine touchdowns. Kansas City also has Thomas Jones who provides them Chiefs with an inside running presence. Though Jones posted a career-high 1,402 yards rushing for the Jets last season it’s clear he’s here to work behind Charles. Whatever the case it gives KC some much needed depth at the position.

Kansas City’s receivers are good but not great.  Chris Chambers and Dexter McCluster are the best of the bunch. However former first-round selection Dwayne Bowe who gaining 2,017 yards in his first two seasons has fallen out of favor with Haley who cites Bowe’s immaturity and poor work habits as major problems.

The Chiefs defense has nowhere to go but up. They ranked 29^th in points allowed (26.5), 30^th overall in total yards (388.2) and 31^st against the run. DEFENSE: The Chiefs ranked 31st in run defense and total sacks last season. They allowed 40 or more points on three occasions including 41 to the Browns in Week 15. Former Penn State LB Tamba Hali led the team in sacks with 8.5 while CB Brandon Flowers had a team high five interceptions.

Odds and ends. Kansas City was favored just twice in 2009 and lost both times. The Chiefs lost their final four games of 2008, went 0-4 in the 2009 pre-season and 0-5 to start the regular season. Wins over the Raiders and Redskins formed the bookends for the 13-game losing streak.

Isn’t that special. Javier Arenas who had seven punt return touchdowns at Alabama will be fun to watch while kicker Ryan Succop gets a nod not just because of his last name (pronounced suck-up) but because he was one of the most accurate kickers in the game hitting all 29 PAT’s and connecting on 25 of 29 field goal attempts.

If Matt Cassel plays well, the offense should move up in most statistical categories. The defense though is another matter. There’s not enough size or talent and the team lacks a proven pass-rusher. The KC Chiefs aka the Missouri Patriots are still a work in progress and are worthy of their 90/1 odds to win the Super Bowl.

Denver Broncos Preview

Will the real Denver Broncos pleased stand up! Will Bronco fans NFL bettors see the team that started at year 6-0 or will it be the squad that finished the season at 2-8.

Denver and first year head coach Josh McDaniels won its first six games of the season (6-0 ATS) including a dramatic Week 5 win over the Patriots 20-17. The victory was extremely gratifying for McDaniels who not only beat his former employers but silenced a few of the critics who claimed he was too young for the job. The following week the Broncos not only avoided the emotional letdown of the Pats conquest but played even better in San Diego where they beat the Chargers 34-23. However that was the high water mark for the Broncos who proceeded to post a pair of four game losing streaks in their final 10 games finishing with an 8-8 mark.

Offense: The Broncos who averaged 20.4 points per game ranked 15^th overall averaging 341.4 yards in total offense. The 13^th rated passing game contributed 226.7 yards per game with Kyle Orton leading the way. Despite working in a spread offense for the first time in his career, Orton threw for 3,802 yards with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The Broncos obtained QB Brady Qunn from Cleveland and drafted Florida's Tim Tebow in the first round adding depth to the position but also raising a bunch of questions in the process like: Is Orton still the QB or will Quinn or Tebow replace him? And what is John Elway doing at camp?

There's no such controversy at the running back spot where Georgia's Knoshown Moreno is the man. Moreno got plenty of work in his rookie season rushing for 947 yards and seven touchdowns. He also had 28 receptions for 213 yards and two scores. He'll need to improve though on his 3.8 yards per carry average.

The left knee injury suffered by All Pro left tackle Ryan Clady has put a cloud and a huge question mark over the Broncos offensive line. Clady who was hurt playing basketball in April is expected to be able to play in the season opener September 12^th at Jacksonville?

Defense: It was one and done for defensive coordinator Mike Nolan who spent the '09 campaign in Denver but left to take a similar position with Miami. Under Nolan the Broncos defensive unit ranked 7^th in total yards and were third in the NFL against the pass. The Broncos should be a defensive force even with the loss of Elvis Dumervil who had 17 sacks in 2009 and became the first player in Broncos history to lead the NFL in that category. Dumervil and company were a big reason the Broncos went 6-2 to the under at home last season.

Draft: In terms of hype there was no bigger first round pick than Tebow. The former Florida quarterback was projected by most to be a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick at best but the Broncos gave up a second, third and fourth round draft pick to move up and get him 15^th overall. How Denver uses him remains to be seen although my guess is we'll be seeing plenty of him in short yardage situations. With WR Brandon Marshall out of the picture rookies seeing plenty Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker could be playing sooner than later. Denver also picked up a pair of top flight cornerbacks in Cal CB Syd'quan Thompson and Oklahoma State's Perrish Cox although Cox was suspended for two games for off the field problems.

Denver is listed at 50/1 to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February and 50/1 to win the AFC crown. They're a +600 choice to unseat the Chargers atop the AFC West. The Broncos season win total for the 2010 campaign opened and remains at 8.5

It's a shame the Broncos weren't able to work out a contract with Marshall. It's not every day that a guy with that kind of talent comes your way but owner Pat Bolen did what he felt he had to do and sent Marshall on his way to Miami. The bigger deal in my mind is letting Nolan leave. He's the best defensive coordinator in the game and there's no doubt he'll work wonders in Miami with that young defense. 

The Denver Broncos are a team in transition. They took a big step (and a big chance) last year in turning the team over to the youngest head coach in the league. Now the Broncos hope the always risky "addition by subtraction" strategy will accelerate the rebuilding project in the Mile High city.

Denver Broncos Preview

Will the real Denver Broncos pleased stand up! Will Bronco fans NFL bettors see the team that started at year 6-0 or will it be the squad that finished the season at 2-8.

Denver and first year head coach Josh McDaniels won its first six games of the season (6-0 ATS) including a dramatic Week 5 win over the Patriots 20-17. The victory was extremely gratifying for McDaniels who not only beat his former employers but silenced a few of the critics who claimed he was too young for the job. The following week the Broncos not only avoided the emotional letdown of the Pats conquest but played even better in San Diego where they beat the Chargers 34-23. However that was the high water mark for the Broncos who proceeded to post a pair of four game losing streaks in their final 10 games finishing with an 8-8 mark.

The Dallas Cowboys would seem to have all the pieces in place as they look for a return trip to the Super Bowl and they're getting lots of love early on from the books and bettors alike. The Cowboys are 12/1 to win it all this season and listed at 6/1 to take the NFC crown.  Dallas is +130 in the NFC East with a season win total that opened and remains at 10.

The Cowboys went 11-5 last season and finally won a playoff game their first since 1996. They were 9-7 ATS and 10-6 to the ‘under' but with the addition of some additional offensive firepower Dallas should improve on their 22.6 points per game average and they'll need to if they hope to keep pace with the likes of the high scoring Saints and Vikings. Both of those teams averaged at least seven points per game more than the Cowboys did in last season. 

Balancing act. The ‘Boys were one of the better balanced offensive teams in the NFL. They were second in total yards (399.4), sixth in passing (267.9) and seventh in rushing (131.4). Tony Romo was third in the league in passing yards (4,483) and had 27 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. While he had has best statistical season there a more than just a few Cowboys fans who still don't view him as one of the elite QB's in the game.

Miles Austin became the big play weapon in the Cowboys arsenal with 81 receptions, 1,320 yards and eleven touchdowns. He's also replaced Romo as the team's most publicize player thanks to his relationship with reality television star Kim Kardashian. Roy Williams who had 38 catches and seven touchdowns along with Patrick Crayton who had 37 grabs give Dallas solid options. However Crayton could be traded to open up a spot for rookie Dez Bryant from Oklahoma State. Bryant's got game but he's also got character issues (think Moss and Owens) still owner Jerry Jones loves the guy and what Jerry wants he gets. Dallas has the best TE in the game in Jason Witten. The former Tennessee standout had 94 receptions last season for 1,030 yards and two touchdowns.

Marion Barber led the rushing attack with 932 yards and seven touchdowns. Felix Jones had a glossy 5.9 yards per carry while Tashard Choice averaged 5.1 per carry. All three backs are excellent receivers as well and combined for 60 receptions.

Defensively Dallas was ninth overall in yards allowed (315.9). They were ranked fourth against the run (90.5) but 20^th against the pass (225.4). Demarcus Ware was the unquestioned leader of the Cowboys with eleven sacks and five forced fumbles in'09. Still the Cowboys felt a need to freshen up the defense and to that end the majority of their draft picks on that side of the ball. The best of the bunch is Penn State's Sean Lee who could become a starter sooner than later. 

Circle the date. The Cowboys host New Orleans on Thanksgiving Day in game that could be better than dinner itself. Dallas also has a trio of tough road games (Minnesota, Green Bay and Indianapolis) on the docket.

Closing argument. Dallas captured the NFC East and finally won a playoff game but given the high profile nature of "America's Team" that's not good enough. Jones won't be happy until his team is back in the Super Bowl and in a conference that includes the Saints, Vikings and Packers that's certainly not a given. This could also be Romo's final chance to prove that he's a big game QB.

Cleveland Browns Preview

The Cleveland Browns are hoping that a change at the top of the organization will reverse the fortunes of the once proud franchise.

The Browns biggest move of the off-season didn't involve a player or even a coach but rather an executive. In December the Browns hired former Packers and Seahawks Head Coach Mike Holmgren as their new team president hoping that Holmgren with his track record as a winner in Green Bay and Seattle can work some magic with a franchise that has endured some lean years since coming back into the league in 1997.

The second-coming of the Browns has been an epic failure producing just two winning seasons since returning to the NFL. Cleveland went 9-7 in 2002 making the playoffs as a wild card and carded a 10-6 in 2007 but missed out on a post-season berth.

The Browns were 5-11 last season and ranked last in offense and next to last in defense so there's nowhere to go but up for Eric Mangini's team. Cleveland ranked 31^st in defense allowing 389.3 yards per game while the offense averaged 260.2 yards per game including an NFL low 129.8 yards per game passing. Both of last year's starting quarterbacks are gone and the Browns have brought in veteran Jake Delhomme to help solidify the position give it a shot this season. As one Browns fan put it this franchise is notorious for praising the QB with the clip board. As long as you're NOT playing you're the favorite. From the Tim Couch era to Derek Anderson to Delhomme the QB spot in Cleveland has truly been a revolving door.

The Browns finished on a high note winning their last four games of 2009. Running back Jerome Harrison finished strong rushing for 561 yards and 5 TDs in the last three games. He'll be counted on heavily again at least until Delhomme can get a handle on the offense. He'll be working with a young batch of receivers who offer raw talent but little else.  Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie figure to improve upon their solid 2009 seasons while Chansi Stuckey and Josh Cribbs will figure into the receiving mix but NONE possess the big play threat that most good NFL teams have.

Cleveland concentrated on defense early in the draft nabbing Florida cornerback Joe Haden with the seventh overall selection and taking Oregon safety T.J. Ward with their second round pick. Both players are expected to start immediately and can only help a porous Browns defense. Texas QB Colt McCoy was a third round selection and it figures to be a case of when not if the Cleveland fans clamor for him to replace Delhomme.

It will be tough if not impossible for the Browns to improve on their 5-11 record from a year ago. The team has too many holes to fill in every area and it will take a draft or two and some quality free-agent signings in order for Holmgren to build up his roster Then there's the ongoing storyline/distraction of when, not if, Mangini will get canned.

Without trying to sound patronizing it must be tough being a Cleveland fan. The Indians, the Browns, Lebron....you get the picture. Each year Browns backers, the most loyal of all sports fans, are full of optimism but that hope gives way quickly to the harsh reality that the franchise is still a wreck. Perhaps this is the year that the Browns under Holmgren's guidance can begin the transition from perennial loser to NFL contender. If Holmgren can get things turned around and headed in the right direction the "Dawg Pound" figures to be a happier place in 2010. If not, then it will be business as usual along the banks of Lake Erie.

You can bet on it! How many games will the Browns win this year? I'm guessing not many but if you had to pick.....The Brownies win total opened and remains at 5.5 for the upcoming campaign and upon first glance appears to be a bit generous. Cleveland is the longest shot on the board to win the AFC North at +1200 and opened as at 30/1 to win the AFC but that number has jumped to 40/1. The Browns are 80/1 long shots to win the NFL title.

The  Falcons  dropped their NFL preseason battle on Thursday night against New England falling 28-10. The defense was picked apart by Tom Brady who was 10-12 for 85 yards and a touchdown.

After making franchise history with back-to-back winning seasons including a rare post-season performance, Atlanta coach Mike Smith has set the bar even higher this season as he looks to improve on a 9-7 SU record and a money making 11-5 ATS mark.

Smith has been nothing short of a miracle worker since his hire in 2008. He inherited a team and franchise in disarray and was somehow able to salvage both for owner Arthur Blank. There was the Michael Vick controversy that swallowed up the entire 2007 season. With Vick suspended and on trial, then head coach Bobby Petrino gave the franchise another swift kick to the groin quitting without notice. His ill-timed (and ill-willed) departure came 13 games into the season and one day after Vick received his prison sentence. Historians will dually note it wasn't just any 4-12 season.

Enter Smith who spent his first nine years in the league as an assistant coach including a stint from 2003-2007 as the defensive coordinator in Jacksonville. He not only righted the ship. but guided the Falcons to an extraordinary 11-5 season that ended with a playoff loss to the Arizona Cardinals. For his efforts Smith was named "Coach of the Year".

What made the turnaround even more remarkable was that Smith did it with rookie quarterback Matt Ryan at the helm. Ryan threw for 3,440 yards and 16 touchdowns while starting every game in his initial season. However his   numbers dipped across the board last year. Battling through a turf toe injury that cost him two starts he still managed 2.916 yards with 22 TD's and a passer rating of 80.9. He also threw three more interceptions (14) in fewer games (14) than his rookie season when he started every game.

Ryan isn't the only Falcon looking for a bounce back season. So is running back Michael Turner who saw his 2009 production drop by nearly 50% from the previous season. Tuner was virtually unstoppable in 2008 running for 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns but tailed off dramatically to 871 yards and ten scores. He missed six games with a serious ankle sprain but the Falcons say he's healthy again and that should mean big improvement for an offense that ranked 13^th in scoring (22.7) and 16^th in total yards (340.4).

Catch us if you can: The Falcons have one of the premier receivers in the league in Roddy White. The former UAB star has had three consecutive seasons with at least 80 catches and 1,000 yards. Last season he pulled in 85 passes for 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns. Michael Jenkins and Harry Douglas offer Ryan another pair of enticing targets while Tight end Tony Gonzalez returns for his 9^th NFL season and second in Atlanta. Gonzo had 83 catches a year ago including six touchdowns.

Defense: This is the side of the ball in which Smith excels. His 2009 unit ranked 10^th against the run (106.9) but was 28^th against the pass (241.9). The Falcons used their top draft pick on Missouri OLB Sean Weatherspoon who many NFL personnel people considered to be the most complete LB in the draft. Atlanta also signed free agent DB Dunta Robinson in hopes he can shore up the secondary. 

You better you bet. The Falcons boasted some impressive spread numbers in '09 going 11-5 ATS including a 6-2 home mark. Atlanta was 3-3 both SU and ATS in the NFC North. It was a mixed bag for the Birds against the champion Saints as they went 0-2 SU but covered in both games. The Falcons were 9-7 to the under including a 6-0 record to the low side to close out the season. 

The Falcons season win total opened and remains at nine. Their odds to win the Super Bowl are listed at 30/1. Atlanta is 13/1 to capture the NFC and +200 to take the NFC North. It appears it'll be a two-team race in the division with the defending Super Bowl champion Saints (-160) heavy favorites to make another deep playoff run. The Falcons have high hopes for a third straight winning season but at some point they've got to beat the Saints. Under Smith Atlanta is just 1-3 vs. NO.

Chris Johnson became just the sixth back in NFL history to rush for 2000 yards in a season (2006) staking his claim as the premier back in the NFL. Now he wants to be paid accordingly. The Titans view is that Johnson should honor the five-year contract he signed in 2008 that pays him a base of $550,000 per year. CJ’s view was that his old deal should be torn up and that a new deal should be struck which is more representative of his current status as the top RB in the league. Early in training camp the two sides agreed on a new deal and Johnson is who also lead the team in with 50 catches and 503 yards is reportedly very happy now. By signing CJ it proves that the Titans are serious about challenging the Colts and Texans in the AFC South .

Vince Young won eight of his ten starts after taking over a team that had gone 0-6 to start the season and helping them finish at 8-8. He ended up with 1, 879 yards and ten touchdown passes and was also the Titans second leading rusher behind Johnson with 288 yards. Young will never put up numbers like Drew Brees but he’s a proven winner and is 26-13 as an NFL starter. Overall Tennessee ranked second in the NFL in rushing last season with 162 yards per game and was 12^th overall with 351.4 YPG. Do the math. Most of the offense came from Johnson.

Defense. This unit needs help and in a hurry. The Titans secondary was scorched last season allowing and AFC worst 258 passing yards per game. They ranked 28^th overall giving up 365.6 YPG while surrendering a whopping 25.1 points per game. The Titans did help themselves signing free agent LB Will Witherspoon from the Eagles and drafting DE Derrick Morgan from Georgia Tech in the first-round of the draft. Tennessee also picked up a trio of rookie defensive backs selecting UCLA CB Alterraun Verner, Safety Robert Johnson from Utah and SS Myron Rolle from Florida State. The Titans defense should be better but the question is by how much? They can’t be much worse than they were a year ago.

Why I like Tennessee’s chances. As long as Jeff Fisher remains the Titans head coach they’ll always be a factor in the AFC South. Fisher doesn’t get near the credit he should and maybe that’s because he hasn’t won the big game yet. He’s got every attribute you would want in a coach: He’s tough, fair, honest and articulate which is a must in the PR oriented NFL. He never gave up despite losing his first six games in 2009 but more importantly the team never gave up on him. If Johnson and the team can get the financial stuff ironed out and if Young can keep his head screwed on straight this team could surprise a few people on offense.

I’m betting on it. The Titans were 6-10 ATS last season including a 3-5 record both at home and on the road. They went 9-7 to the over but stayed below the number in five of their final six games.

I’m just trying to help….Since I’m old, white and broke; it’s tough for me to relate to someone who is young, black and rich. But as my late father-in-law said, and it applies not matter what race, creed or color you are: “Nothing good happens after midnight”. Stay home and stay out of the strip clubs. Vince Young are you listening?

Bottom line: It was a testimony to Fisher’s leadership skills that this team didn’t fall apart after the 0-6 start. The Titans were a one-dimensional team last season and that needs to improve. They’re wafer thin at wide receiver and don’t have a great deal of depth behind Johnson. The defense is another couple of years away from being a factor and they have the misfortune of playing in the same division as the best player in the NFL. A fair question would be which Titans team will we see in 2010? Will it be the one who started out 0-6 or the won that finished at 8-2?

Betting Odds: What about the Titans chances of hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy in 2011? The books have them at 28/1 to win the Super Bowl. Tennessee is 15/1 to capture the AFC championship and +350 to grab the AFC South crown. The Titans win total for the 2010 campaign opened and remains at eight games.

AFC South Preview Houston Texans

The Houston Texans, who finished the 2009 season with a four-game winning streak, are hoping this is the year they can get over the hump and into the NFL playoffs.

Houston is coming off its first winning season in seven years going 9-7 in 2009. Head Coach Gary Kubiak who was reportedly on shaky ground early last season emerged unscathed and even prospered signing a new three-year deal that will run thru the 2012 season showing just how valuable a winning streak can be win positioned properly. The Texans have made it clear that Kubiak is their guy and it would appear that he finally has all the pieces in place to take the team to the next level.

In quarterback Matt Schaub and receiver Andre Johnson the Texans have one of the best offensive combinations in football with that duo hooking up 101 times for 1,569 yards and 9 touchdowns. Schaub had a banner 2009 campaign leading the AFC in passing with 4, 770 yards including 29 touchdown passes. He completed 67% of his throws en route to a QB rating of 98.6%. Johnson meanwhile was the AFC’s top receiver with 101 receptions, 1569 yards and nine TD’s.  Overall the Texans ranked fourth in the NFL in offense with an average of 383  yards per game including 290 yards thru the air. The Texans will also get tight end Owen Daniels back after injuries cost him most of the 2009 season.

Houston’s big question mark on offense is its running game. Former West Virginia star Steve Slaton who gained 1,282 yards in his rookie season in 2008 regressed big time in ’09, rushing for just 428 yards. His return to form is a must if the Texans are to take that next step. Should Slaton fail to produce, Houston could turn to rookie RB Ben Tate from Auburn who gained 1,362 yards in his senior season. Ryan Moats and Adrian Foster are also options at the RB position.

The Texans will start the season without the NFL defensive rookie of the year, linebacker Brian Cushing who was hit with a four-game suspension for using performance enhancing drugs. The former USC star had 133 tackles, four sacks, two forced fumbles, and four interceptions. His absence will definitely hurt a Houston that ranked 13^th in defense last season allowing 325 yards per game. The Texans signed LB and defensive captain DeMeco Ryans to a six-year deal. Ryans has made the Pro Bowl twice in four seasons and has been the league’s leading tackler since he arrived in 2006. The secondary appears set despite losing Dunta Robinson who bolted for Atlanta via the free agency route. He’ll be replaced by first-round pick Kareem Jackson from Alabama. Bernard Pollard provides veteran leadership on the other side and is coming off a season which saw him grab four interceptions. Defensive end Mario Williams anchors an improving front four and yes it’s the same Mario Williams who was drafted ahead of Reggie Bush in 2006 much to the chagrin of Mel Kuiper and other alleged draft experts. While Bush has been a good player in limited duty with the Saints, Williams is a full-time bona fide star. On special teams kicker Kris Brown looks to rebound from a season in which he missed a career worst 11 field goals.

The Texans were knocking on the playoff door last season. This year they plan to kick the door in. If Schaub and Johnson stay healthy and Cushing comes back strong after his suspension, this figures to be the year that the Texans end their post-season drought.

Houston’s season win total opened and remains at eight. They’re listed at +350 to win the AFC South, 13/1 to capture the AFC crown and 28/1 to win the Super Bowl.

This is definitely not your father’s NFC North.

What used to be the “Black and Blue” division and the home of smash mouth football (think Butkus and Nitschke) has been replaced with weekly aerial displays courtesy of Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. The run is so yesterday. The pass is where it’s at in the NFC. 

Rodgers is the most underrated QB in the NFL but he’s used to getting the shaft by now. He was the guy sitting in green room on draft day 2005 and watched team after team pass on him (pardon the pun). He slipped all the way to the Green Bay Packers at #24. The problem was the Packers had a pretty good quarterback in Favre so that mean more waiting for Rodgers who finally got his shot in 2008 after Favre’s messy divorce from the Packers. 

In a classic case of patience being a virtue (and rewarded), Rodgers. who waited on draft day and then waited on old’ #4 to make his move, turned out to be the gracious winner. 

Since taking over as the Packers QB Rodgers has simply had back to back 4,000 yard passing seasons and thrown 58 touchdowns to 20 interceptions. He did this while gracefully excusing himself from the circus to surrounded Favre’s many retirements and one nasty exit from Green Bay. Rodgers has remained classy, confident and competent.

The Packers were 11-5 in 2009 including an NFL best 11-4-1 ATS and the success was equal part Rodgers and the Green Bay defense. Rodgers threw for 4,434 yards, 30 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. He was fourth in the league in TD’s, 4^th in passer rating (103.2) and 4^th in passing yards. As a result, Green Bay enjoyed one of its best statistical seasons ever finishing 2009 with the 5^th highest rated offense in the league. Rodgers favorite Greg Jennings and Donald Driver both enjoyed stellar seasons. Jennings made 68 grabs for 1,113 and four touchdowns while Driver had 70 catches for 1,061 yards and 6 touchdowns. The two have caught 24 of Rodgers' 58 touchdown passes over the past two years. Ryan Grant had his best year as a Packer with 1,253 yards and led the team in touchdowns with 11. Just about everything went right for the Packers offense in 2009. From Rodgers to the receivers to the running game there were smiles all around and Lambeau Leaps aplenty.

The Packers' defense is much better than the team that allowed 51 points against the Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card game. During the regular season Green Bay ranked in the top ten in every major defensive category. They were first against the run, fifth against the pass, second in total yards allowed per game and seventh in scoring (18.6).  Charles Woodson took a big swig from the fountain of youth and was named the NFL defensive player of the year. He and free safety Nick Collins had a combined 15 interceptions between them. 

Bet on it. The Packers finished the season on a 7-1-1 ATS mark with the only loss coming in the playoff setback to the Cardinals. Green Bay was 7-3 ATS against NFC competition and 4-2 vs. the number against NFC North opponents. The only losses came against Minnesota.

Bet on it again. The Packers are listed at 14/1 to win the Super Bowl, 7/1 to capture the NFC and are favored to take the NFC North crown (+130).

Keep in mind a team from the NFC North has made it to the NFC Championship game in three out of the past four seasons. Something tells me that trend will play out again but maybe with a Green Bay flavor to it this time.

Baltimore Ravens Preview

If you look up the word “defense” in the dictionary you’re likely to find a team picture of the Baltimore Ravens.

While teams like the New Orleans Saints and San Diego Chargers made their mark by lighting up the scoreboard the Ravens marched their way to the playoffs using a suffocating defense that was ranked #1 in fewest yards allowed per game (235.5) including a stingy 53 yards per game. The hope is that Baltimore’s offense, which added one of the league’s top receivers, will be able to do its share of the heavy lifting and get the Birds back to the Super Bowl.

The Ravens went 9-7 in the regular season to earn a wild card berth. They steamrolled the AFC East champion Patriots 33-14 in their playoff opener before losing 20-3 in the divisional round. Based on their strong 2009 finish and especially their two playoff performances, more than a few respected NFL savants feel this is the season that the Ravens unseat the Colts as the team to beat in the AFC.

Thru shrewd drafting and player acquisitions Baltimore has worked its way back to being a serious NFL title contender. Quarterback Joe Flacco in his third year out of Delaware isn’t spectacular but gets the job done. Despite a passer rating of less than 90 last season he had 21 touchdown passes and just 12 interceptions. He’ll have a new deep threat this year in wide receiver Anquan Boldin who had 84 receptions and 1084 yards last season in Arizona. He joins veteran wide outs Mark Clayton and Derek Mason who along with Todd Heap gives Flacco four viable receiving options. However the Ravens will remain a run first, pass second offense at least as long as Ray Rice is in town. The former Rutgers star rushed for 1,339 yards and had 78 receptions for 702 yards in a breakout 2009 season. Willis McGahee is available in a backup role for Rice and both players will run behind an offensive line spearheaded by Sandra Bullock’s favorite right tackle Michael Oher. Overall Baltimore was ranked 18^th offensively last season but they are confident that this is a unit that will improve greatly especially in the red zone.

The Ravens defense spearheaded by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed remains the teams’ bread and butter. Lewis will be entering his 16^th season and if you ask him he’s not getting older just better (and meaner). Lewis meanwhile will be looking to bounce back from a season that was more about injuries than big plays. Baltimore got stronger on the defensive side of the ball thanks to a pair of “steals” in the April draft. They landed Texas DE Sergio Kindle who had been projected as a top ten selection in the second round and also reeled in Alabama’s Terrence (Mount) Cody with another second round pick. They added a pair of receiving threats in Ed Dickson from Oregon and Dennis Pitta. Despite not having a first-round selection the Ravens still came away with potentially one of the better drafts in franchise history.

It’s likely Ravens fans will know exactly what kind of team they’ve got early on. In the first six weeks of the season Baltimore has road games against the Jets, Bengals, Steelers and Patriots. If Baltimore can survive that stretch then you count on seeing this team play deep into January.

The Ravens are -120 favorites to win the AFC North but aren’t getting as much love when it comes to winning the AFC championship. The Colts are still the darlings of the betting public followed by New England, San Diego and the New York Jets. Baltimore is next on the board at 7/1 after opening at 11/1. Money has also been coming in on “Flacco’s Flock” to win the NFL title. The Ravens opened as 24/1 long shots but are now at 14/1 to hoist the trophy on Super Sunday. 

Shops have set the Ravens season win total at 10 a number that seems right on for a Baltimore squad that went 9-7 a year ago and is projected as an 11 win team this season.

There’s a buzz in Baltimore where the Ravens and their faithful flock believe this is the year the balance of power shifts from the AFC South and “Peyton’s Place” to the AFC North and “Lewis Lane”.